In short: TMX wants to spend C$2.9 billion to lift capacity to 1.2 million bbl/d, then add another million bbl/d by 2032–34 — part of the West Coast egress build-out that lets Alberta and Saskatchewan grow production for export.
Trans Mountain is the federally owned pipeline that carries Alberta oil to the BC coast, where it can be loaded on tankers for Asia. It is not a listed stock. Schachter cites its plan to spend C$2.9 billion to raise capacity to 1.2 million barrels a day, and another million barrels a day by the early 2030s, as a sign Canada is building the export routes that let its producers grow — which supports the value of the listed producers above.
28:32You've seen TMX announce that they want to spend 2.9 billion dollars to take the production up to 1.2 million barrels a day and then by 2032 or 34 add another million barrels a day in the TMX system. So there's lots of opportunity that's being talked about to get more production to the export markets.
In short: The proponent of the new West Coast line — and, in his reading, the proof that Ottawa chose the public route: because it wouldn't scrap C-69/C-48/the industrial carbon tax, "by definition it'll be the public sector." At $36–43B versus a $15–18B private-affordable cost, the federal return drops from a private ~12% to roughly 5%.
Trans Mountain is the government-owned pipeline company now fronting the proposed West Coast line, with Pembina "assisting" but keeping the right to walk away. Waterous doesn't read that as industry timidity — he reads it as arithmetic. Industry told Ottawa exactly what it would take for private capital to build: repeal the C-69 impact-assessment law and the C-48 tanker ban, drop the industrial carbon tax, and cap approvals at six months. Ottawa declined, so the project's costs stay high enough that no private return works — "by definition it'll be the public sector."
His broader point is that this is a deliberate policy choice with a 50-year precedent (Petro-Canada in 1975), not an accident, and it comes with a visible price: a lower return for taxpayers, offset in Ottawa's telling by tax revenue and by the negotiating leverage that more oil access gives Canada with the United States.
16:16— So that's interesting, because you're right, the proposal is essentially the proponent is Trans Mountain which is a crown corporation, and then Pembina is going to be assisting, but they're very "we could walk away at any time" and they're very non-committal about the whole thing. I think because of scars in the industry of how much these companies have poured in. But it sounds like you're saying this is a deliberate feature not a bug.
In short: The government of Canada owns it; Ebel expects Ottawa to eventually "recycle capital" and sell TMX to the private sector (as it's considering with airports). Argues the northern tanker ban is unhelpful — "if you like one path, why wouldn't you like two?"
Trans Mountain (TMX) is the crude-oil pipeline from Alberta to the BC coast — the one Canada's federal government bought and expanded, so taxpayers now own it. Ebel's read: the government is "front-running" the risk on new West Coast pipe because the risk-reward isn't attractive enough yet for private players, and he expects Ottawa to eventually sell TMX into private hands to "recycle" the capital (the same way it's looking at selling airports) — which could help pay for the expansion. Separately, he argues the northern tanker ban is unhelpful to Canada: the country sends 95% of its oil south to the US, and "if you like one path, why wouldn't you like two?" It's context on government policy rather than a stock view — TMX isn't publicly traded.
7:21maybe that pays for TMX too. So I think eventually it gets into the private sector. But at this point in time, I
7:30I've got $40 billion worth of projects that we're doing in all of our businesses. Two-thirds that in the gas
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.